The first comprehensive look at New York City’s failing students has found that nearly 140,000 people from ages 16 to 21 have either dropped out of high school or are already so far behind that they are unlikely to graduate.
The study, which the New York City Department of Education is to present to the State Board of Regents today, for the first time sheds light on a population of students who for decades have been relegated to the shadows of the city’s sprawling school system. The study was conducted by the Parthenon Group, a Boston consulting group, and was paid for with $2.6 million from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
The study is the school system’s latest effort to try to grapple with one of its most basic problems: a low graduation rate. City figures indicate that 58.2 percent of students graduate in four years, although the state, which counts on-time graduation differently, puts that number at 43.5 percent. Other school systems are also examining their low graduation rates; on Thursday, researchers from Johns Hopkins University released a report on Philadelphia’s high school dropouts.
In New York, Michele Cahill, the senior counselor for education policy to Joel I. Klein, the schools chancellor, said the study was unique in its attempt to pinpoint who falls behind; when in their academic careers it happens; and which schools do a better job of getting students back on track. Ms. Cahill said dropouts had previously been lumped together into one “black box.”
The study found that students who fall behind in the number of credits they are expected to accumulate have a difficult time getting back on track at traditional high schools. Of the class of 2003’s dropouts, the study found that 93 percent fell behind in their credits at some point, indicating that their chief problem may not be the state requirement that all graduates pass a series of Regents exams. By contrast, only 19 percent of those who graduated had fallen significantly behind in their credits at any point.
There are 68,000 students ages 16 to 21 who have dropped out of school, the study found, but there are 70,000 who are still enrolled even though they are behind in their credits. Effectively serving that group, the bulk of whom are 16, 17 and 18, is critical to improving the city’s graduation rate, Ms. Cahill said.
Many students fall behind after coming to high school with insufficient reading and math skills, the study found, indicating shortcomings in the city’s middle schools. But 30 percent of students who eventually fall behind begin their freshman years with proficient or nearly proficient reading skills, suggesting that high schools are also to blame. Boys are more likely than girls to drop out, the study found, and black and Hispanic students are more likely to drop out than whites and Asians.
Ms. Cahill said the findings pointed to a need for more so-called transfer schools: small, 200-student schools that focus on students who have fallen behind at traditional high schools. The mayor last year announced plans to open 15 such schools, and Ms. Cahill said the administration is hoping to open an additional five.
New York is likely to seek more money for transfer schools and other programs for students behind in their credits, from the Gates Foundation, which has already given $7 million toward such efforts in the city.
Elisa Hyman, executive director of Advocates for Children, a nonprofit group that has criticized the city schools for failing to meet the needs of its struggling students, described the study as “a very important first step.”
Sister Paulette LoMonaco, executive director of Good Shepherd Services, a nonprofit group that runs two city transfer schools and is planning to open several more, said her schools provided intense counseling services and designed schedules that enable students to accumulate credits over shorter periods of time.
“Sometimes we tend to write these kids off too quickly when we see that they’re not coming to school regularly,” she said. “What’s always amazing is the incredible amount of obstacles that our young people have lived with, and yet they still have a strong determination to finish high school.”