The
Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World
Carnegie Council
170 East 64th Street
Tuesday, March 11, 2014, 5:30 PM to 7:00 PM
Gross national product, balance of trade, unemployment figures, inflation, and the consumer price index determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about our future and dictate whether businesses hire or hunker down, governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, and individuals buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job. Yet few of us know where these "leading indicators" come from, what they mean, or why they rule our world.
In The Leading Indicators, Zachary Karabell describes how these numbers were invented in the mid-twentieth century to address the urgent challenges of the Great Depression, World War II, and the Cold War. They were rough measures – designed to give clarity in a data-parched world that was made up of centralized, industrial nations – yet we still rely on them today. What are the limitations of these numbers? How can we become less dependent on a few simple figures?
Zachary Karabell is an author, money manager, commentator and president of River Twice Research where he analyzes economic and political trends, and of River Twice Capital Advisors. Educated at Harvard, Oxford, he is the author of eleven previous books. He is a regular commentator on CNBC, MSNBC, and CNN. He writes the weekly “Edgy Optimist” column for Reuters and The Atlantic, and is a contributor to the Daily Beast, Time, The Wall Street Journal, The New Republic, The New York Times and Foreign Affairs.
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